Lagi satu benda unlucky this year. Shouldn't complain. Last year org² yg grad whined sbb global rcession susah carik keje. This year, euro macam #'§?*%!! terus jadi miskin. So directly unlucky, man.
Last week, euro was at 3,9 because of fears of Greek problems (wei sape nak beli LV ke, chanel, murah wei!). Sedih tak terhingga. Pastu it started influencing other economies sebab sume org jual euro mendadak, US, Asia sume jatuh on friday. Which was good for euro sbb naik 4,2. Everyone breathed a sigh of relief....mintak² naik sampai 4,5 pon jadilah.
The general consensus is that : don't hold you breath.
World economy is a confidence game. Everything depends on investor confidence. Every hal ehwal semasa, every war announcement, every natural catastrophe, every statistic sways investor confidence.
Contohnye, aku suro org beli LV and Chanel sbb skarang murah...nanti sum org datang shopping kat Europe mase summer. Indirectly you're investing in the euro. So sebenarnye i'm being self-serving lah. Alah, win-win.
Minggu ni Spain sibuk nak jugakk ade bank lingkup. Korea pulak nak jugak perang sesame sendiri. So everyone started selling stocks. So turun balik. Only this time, bukan euro je turun, Asia pun turun jugak. But still, euro the biggest loser lah sbb ade masalah Greece lagi, Spain lagi, Portugal lagi, ade bailout plan yg kene bayar lagi.
It's hard to tell. When to cut your losses or if you should tunggu dan lihat. Macam berjudi pulak kan? Personally, aku rase aku nak tengok if Europe manages to keep together and agree on things. Jangan harap lah nak tunggu Greece keluar euro. Getting out is costly and complicated. And it would take a while. Europeans are notorious for being suke cakap byk², meeting byk², gaduh sesame sendiri and tak decisive. Which is the recipe for a global recession.
But i think bouncing back is an option. I think it's possible with the bailout, kegarangan orang german and public awareness. But in the meantime, brace yourselves, i think the worse is yet to come as most economists thinks the euro is overvalued. So definitely soon, akan jatuh really, really badly.
"When a currency declines, imports typically become more expensive and exports become cheaper, lowering the trade deficit and creating jobs. It should make European offerings — be they German automobiles, Italian leather, French wine or even Greek vacations — more affordable, eventually helping the recovery."
-Time Magazine-
Hope for a better Europe is a weaker euro? Hanya kitorang yang nak balik taun ni je yang cuak. Orang laen relax je.
*sigh* bole tak orang french macam tak tau pun euro dah nak lingkup? kenapelah worlview diorang slalu laen?
Paling teruk pon parity dengan dollar kan?
*fingers crossed
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